Talk Is Cheap » rant http://www.hadleysplace.com Sun, 06 Nov 2011 21:09:12 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Never Tell Me The Odds http://www.hadleysplace.com/never-tell-me-the-odds/ http://www.hadleysplace.com/never-tell-me-the-odds/#comments Tue, 12 Aug 2008 11:52:01 +0000 Scott http://www.hadleysplace.com/?p=634 Ok.. this one time.. go ahead.

Am I figuring this correctly? She has four (4) trinkets she can drop on heroic, right?  So there’s a 25% chance that one specific one will drop.. 0.25.  Now if we kill her 4 times the chance that the same damn trinket will drop every… single… time… would be .25^4?  Right?  That’s 0.0039 or 0.39% chance of that occuring?  Less than 4 in 1,000 chance.

That’s if we have only killed her four times.  If I forgot one and we killed her five times.. it’s 0.00097.. less than 1 in 10,000 chance.  Man are we lucky or what?!

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